Although the impact of the global economic downturn continues to be felt by local businesses, 2010 looks set to mark the beginning of a new wave of growth and prosperity for WA.
CCI’s latest snapshot of state, national and international economies, Outlook, found that while conditions remain challenging, the WA economy is set to return to strong growth in the second half of this year.
CCI’s optimism is shared by a large number of businesses and households. The latest quarterly surveys tracking business and consumer confidence show that WA businesses and households believe that 2010 will be a better year for the State’s economy.
The December quarter Commonwealth Bank-CCI Survey of Business Expectations revealed a marked turnaround in business confidence, with WA businesses’ expectations for the economy in the year ahead surging to a 13 year high. Just nine months earlier, business confidence was at an all time low.
This renewed confidence means that WA businesses are looking to expand their operations, and hire more staff this year.
Meanwhile, the Curtin Business School-CCI Survey of Consumer Confidence found WA households are also optimistic about the year ahead, with many reporting an improvement in their personal finances and job prospects. Consumers also believe it is a good time to buy household goods and property.
The global economy is also on the road to recovery and will provide an important boost to WA’s exports. In recent months, the world’s major advanced economies of the United States, Europe and Japan have all edged out of recession, while growth in the developing world has accelerated.
CCI believes the stronger conditions overseas and locally will see the WA economy grow by 4.25% in 2010-11, before picking up to 5% in 2011-12, and 6% in 2012-13.
While WA remains a stand out performer, the national economy has also held up better than expected, although it continues to feel the impact of the global economic downturn. Economic conditions across Australia are expected to improve in the year ahead, with consensus forecasts compiled by CCI showing that the national economy will grow by 1.75% in 2009-10, before picking up to 3% by 2010-11.
While WA’s future is bright, the next six months will continue to be a testing time for the local economy. The impact of the global economic downturn continues to be felt across the State with the WA domestic economy recording its lowest annual rate of growth in eight years in September 2009. Business investment also fell in annual terms for the first time in five years and export returns continued to be eroded by weaker commodity prices.
In a testament to the strength of the local economy, WA will be one of the few economies worldwide to avoid the first global recession since the 1930s, with a modest expansion of 1.5% forecast for this financial year.
The State’s labour market will also continue to suffer from the weaker economic conditions in the near term. However, the worst appears to be coming to an end, with the unemployment rate having reached its peak and businesses starting to hire more staff. CCI believes that WA’s unemployment rate will fall back to 4.5% in 2010-11, before dropping to 4% by 2012-13.
While the outlook for the WA economy is positive, this strong economic growth will also bring about a range of challenges. Action is needed by State and Federal Governments to ensure the local economy is ready for the opportunities headed its way.
The biggest issue for WA business in the year ahead will be the return of severe labour shortages.
More than half of all WA businesses believe that labour shortages will have a negative impact on their operations in a year’s time, with around one quarter already describing labour as “scarce”.
The December quarter Commonwealth Bank-CCI Survey of Business Expectations revealed that construction workers, managers, technicians and trades workers are expected to be in highest demand. However, labour shortages will be widespread across all industry sectors, all regions and businesses big and small.
It is critical that measures are adopted to boost the labour force, to ensure that labour shortages do not limit the ability of the economy to sustain its growth.
A range of other issues are also likely to have an impact on the capacity of businesses and the economy to grow
and develop.
In particular, housing shortages and associated affordability issues, infrastructure constraints, taxation and unnecessary layers of regulation and red tape will place restrictions on the capacity of WA businesses to grow.
It is imperative appropriate policies and strategies are put in place to encourage growth and development and address these key challenges. This will ensure that the State is well positioned to sustain and leverage off current and future economic opportunities.
CCI will continue to work closely
with State and Federal Governments,
to ensure these challenges are
properly addressed.